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fair assumptions. And, as I see it, both have stumbled in the last week. Rothenberg's final estimate of net 34 to 40 means that the Democrats will win 63 to 73 of the seats on this list. You're still more wrong than when you started. How does this list add up to a net pickup of 34 to 40 seats? Bush did 9 or worse than his 1992 national average switch to the Republicans; Cook's list currently has 11 such Republican-held seats (i.e. NJ 7 (Ferguson, R oH 12 (Tiberi, R tX 23 (Bonilla, R) lean democratic (6 R, 1 D) IA 1 (Open; Nussle, R) IA 3 (Boswell, D) IN 2 (Chocola, R) OH 15 (Pryce, R) OH 18 (Open; Ney, R) PA 7 (Weldon, R). That the two unmentioned categories are "Safe Republican" and "Safe Democrat porn (2) that all seats not mentioned here are in their parties' respective "Safe" categories, (3) that each category is equidistant from those immediately preceding and following it (i.e.

In other words, they do not want to fail to predict a seat will switch when it indeed will switch. In other words, re-jigger the list to put 20 seats into "Safe Democratic" and 21 seats into "Pure Toss-Up" - which is to say, shift 66 of all vulnerable seats toward the Democrats - and you can hit the mid-point of their estimate. And, I would note that I am positive that these two have been looking at each seat very closely to identify any kind of Republican weakness. Cook cannot predict 1994-in-reverse mephia botw porn using his list. Posted by Jay Cost at 02:07 AM Email Author Permalink. My feeling is that they both have definitely minimized Type 2 error. WA 8 (Reichert, R tOSS-UP/tilt democratic (7 R, 3 D). Skip to main content, «europe and the Olympics: what solidarity? The average, or expected value, for each distribution is simply the probability of victory for any given seat multiplied by the number of seats in the distribution.

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«Europe and the Olympics: what solidarity?

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I don't think those numbers add.

ID 1 (Open; Otter, R kY 3 (Northup, R kY 4 (Davis, R). 1994 saw Democrat-held 0 seats from districts in which George.W. This is 8 to 15 seats short of Rothenberg's estimate. Maybe this gets to what I was hinting at in my recent critique of Cook. The error of the false positive. This might work: if we gave the Republicans nothing of the seats that are tilting/leaning/favoring Democrats and gave the Democrats half of everything that is "Toss-Up" or tilting/leaning/favoring Republicans, that would give the Democrats 36 to 37 seats. Either they know something the Hill committees and party donors do not, or they have inflated their list of Republican targets. A 10 reduction in the possibility of Type 2 error does us no good if it causes a 20 increase in the possibility of Type 1 error. Accordingly, for each category, we should expect the Democrats to win: "Safe Democrat Seats 198 Seats "Democrat Favored.5 * 4 Seats.5 Seats "Lean Democratic 75 * 7 Seats.25 Seats "Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic.5 * 10 Seats.25 Seats "Pure Toss-Up 50 *. Why does he not correct them so that they show something like 34 to 40? That is what I was getting at this week with Cook and his super-conservative Toss-Up districts, and also Rothenberg with his 20 or so Republican seats that just do not have the money situation to validate a vulnerability estimate, as well as his "fuzzy math". Type 1 error and Type 2 error are both error.

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With these assumptions, that would mean that any given race in a given category would have the following probability of Democratic victory: "Safe Democrat 100 "Democrat Favored.5 "Lean Democratic 75 "Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic.5 "Pure Toss-Up 50 "Toss-Up/Tilt Republican.5 "Lean Republican 25 "Republican Favored. - Mephia botw porn

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